Mongolia’s economy remains highly dependent on exports, particularly on mining products such as coal and copper. Therefore, in projecting the country’s 2025 economic outlook, we closely examined the export volume, prices, and their impact—especially for these key commodities.

Forecast and Impact of Coal Exports

Although Mongolia initially aimed to export 100 million tons of coal in 2025, the performance during the first quarter of the year was insufficient. As a result, analysts revised the target down to 83.3 million tons. This indicates that the original goal is unlikely to be met. Furthermore, coal prices in the global market are showing a declining trend, with forecasts suggesting the average price per ton could fall to USD 100 in 2025.

Combining these factors, Mongolia’s coal export revenue is projected to reach MNT 30.03 trillion in 2025. This estimate is based on the average exchange rate for the USD in 2025, which is projected to be MNT 3,604.45 according to the Bank of Mongolia.

Growth in Copper Exports

While coal exports are weakening, the outlook for copper is more favorable. Copper prices are expected to rise in 2025, which will likely serve as a key driver for increased export revenue. Preliminary estimates suggest that copper export earnings could reach MNT 13.58 trillion. This increase could partially offset the decline in coal exports and contribute to overall economic stability.

Total Exports and GDP Estimation

It is estimated that coal and copper exports together will account for 74% of Mongolia’s total export revenue in 2025. Based on this figure, the total export income is expected to reach MNT 58.93 trillion.

According to data from the past five years, exports make up an average of 66.45% of Mongolia’s GDP. Using this ratio, Mongolia’s GDP for 2025 is projected to reach MNT 88.68 trillion. This represents a nominal growth of 10.92% compared to the previous year. However, considering the inflation rate of 7.2% forecasted by the Bank of Mongolia, the real economic growth for 2025 is estimated to be 3.47%.

Conclusion

This analysis reaffirms that Mongolia’s economy continues to be overly dependent on exports. The decline in coal exports has a negative impact on the economy, although the rise in copper prices offers a partial buffer. Nevertheless, the real economic growth is projected to be at 3.47%.

Therefore, it is essential for Mongolia to focus on diversifying its economy, expanding the range of export products, and strengthening inflation control. These efforts are critical for ensuring sustainable economic growth and reducing the country’s vulnerability to external shocks.